Iraq withdrawal: proceed with caution

Without a doubt, successfully withdrawing our troops from Iraq is good for the United States.  With 100,000 spare troops to devote to Afghanistan and any other "regional conflicts" which may occur, we may be one step closer to securing victory in the war on terror.  

Yet, successfully withdrawing is a task America has not done well since World War II.  A 2010 withdrawal is a campaign promise, but also a major gamble.  If Iraq falls, American morale falls with it.  War cannot be fought from Washington, and withdrawal may not be possible when done on a civilian timeline.

Take for example Vietnam; the U.S. had a timeline for withdrawal in that war.  The North Vietnamese forces knew about our timeline and stockpiled weapons and forces on the border awaiting our withdrawal.  When the U.S. forces left Vietnam, South Vietnam fell rapidly in spite of a supposedly well trained Southern force.  Few can argue that Vietnam was not a success, but it is not the only inadequate withdrawal.  

Korea is another example of an inadequate withdrawal.  The cease-fire in Korea is still strained constantly by an aggressive Northern power, and a resolutely independent Southern force.  Yet, the Korean peninsula still consumes a great deal of American military resources including 28,500 troops.  

Iraq risks the same result as Korea, but of more concern it risks the same result as Vietnam.  Extremists had power in Iraq before the U.S. invasion, and could potentially regain that power if our 50,000 remaining troops cannot do the job 150,000 were only barely accomplishing.

In Iraq, the situation is admittedly different than either Korea or Veitnam.  The threats are largely from within the country rather than without, the insurgents are likely outnumbered by the 700,000 Iraqi troops, Saddam is a distant memory, and violence is down significantly.  By all rights now may seem like a safe time to withdraw, and from a political standpoint, it is a safe time for America to leave.  

We should be cautious, however, when the head of the Iraqi military feels incapable of securing Iraq without full U.S. forces until 2020.  Suicide bombings and regional militant assaults are still occurring.  We should not forget that Saddam once held the loyalty of the 5th largest land force on the planet, and many could still be loyal to his ideologies.

I do not pretend to know whether or not this withdrawal will end in success or failure.  I can say that to withdraw because of political pressure, rather than because of military assessment is taking a huge risk.  If Iraq falls, American morale will fall and likely take the Afghanistan campaign with it.  Then, not only would the lost lives and freedoms of countless civilians no longer matter, but the efforts of our heroes who lost life and limb for our country are made void.  Iraq may have been painful to hold, but the president risks too much by letting it go too soon.